Friday 7 March 2014

Vladimir Putin - The Great Statesman

The current buzz topic within international relations and global security circles is the situation in Ukraine. Everyone has something to say though not too many people are attempting to look at the issue from a non Western perspective. History is often an imperfect judge of character but it could well be the case that the great statesman of the era is remembered not as Obama, Clinton, Cameron, Blair or Merkel but Vladimir Putin.

This blog entry is not intended to be a rigorous academic essay but a collection of thoughts which can briefly summarised as:

1) Annexing a country or the part with out firing a shot and no deaths is a masterstroke.

2) What is the purpose behind Russian foreign policy? (ok that should probably be number 1)

3) Is Putin effectively using the Western concept of R2P, which was used as justification for intervention in Libya, as justifying the intervention in Crimea? Is the Western world merely annoyed that he has been able to intervene more effectively than they ever have?

4) Does the EU and NATO have a responsibility for pushing eastwards too far and thus creating tension?

Despite a lot of the paper talk about this great unpredictable power that is wielded by the satan in the east it can be said that Russian foreign policy is one of the most predictable and dependable in existence. Assuming that the criteria for History in English schools has not changed too much then everyone should be at least vaguely aware of the traditional Russian agenda of securing a warm water port. This has been an over-riding Russian objective for centuries, and yes you have guessed correctly in the present day this is the Black Sea Fleet based in Crimea.

A brief bit of extra history. When the Soviet Union ceased to exist in 1990/1 the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) came into existence, which consisted of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and all the other, now, former Soviet States. At the time of this breakup Ukraine within its territorial boundaries had legitimate claims to the Black Sea Fleet and the nuclear arsenal maintained on its soil. The later was given up following the 1994 Budapest agreement in which European powers (and the US?) guaranteed the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine. The former was returned to Russia in exchange for energy credit.

Energy credit, or debit, is how the Kremlin exerts its influence over the former members of the Soviet Union. The situation in Ukraine is further compounded by the fact that 55% of all Russian gas into Europe goes through pipelines that cross Ukraine. Russia has often threatened to build a new pipeline that circumvents Ukraine, and indeed the non building of this was one of the aspects of the deal surrounding the return of the Black Sea Fleet. Chechnya, anyone recall that incident? The main reason Russia refused to let this little republic break away is that Grozny is an oil pipeline crossroads which all the oil from the Caspian sea travels through. It is off obvious strategic importance, as is Ukraine.

Ukraine is dependant on Russia for its energy. It is dependant on the European Union for far less other than harder to quantify aspirations to a Western way of life. Therefore, it may well be the case that history reflects that the EU and NATO have been complicit in the present situation by tangling an unreachable carrot for Ukraine. Incidentally at numerous times during the 1990s Russia was given assurances that the EU and NATO would not impact Russia's sphere of influence. The abandonment of this premise is a significant reason behind the current tensions.

The other aspect of Russian foreign policy is that it is not really foreign but has a domestic focus. It is concerned with reinforcing the notion that Russia is a Great Power for the benefit of the people within Russia and controlling domestic politics. In this light the annexation of Crimea, the securing of Russian citizens, standing up to NATO, America, EU and the West, and all without a shoot being fired in anger demonstrates the genius opportunism that sets Putin apart from his counterparts on the global stage. He has the vision, ability, and balls to make the big play. He is Peyton Manning or John Elway of the global arena with Obama, more resembling Jay Cutler.

A tricky aspect which is yet to be properly raised or debated is that this intervention has probably saved lives and stopped the country degenerating into a divisive and brutal ethnic civil war, a la The Balkan conflicts of the 1990s. If we consider the human as the referent object for security instead of the state, as the United Nations would like us to do (at least when it suits the United States to do so, eg Libya not Syria) then it could be argued that Putin is just exercising the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) and thus his actions are wholly in line with United Nations policy and objectives. Consider how many Syrians have so far died in their Civil War, how many Libyans, how many Iraqis, how many Afghans, and how many 'Yugoslavians'?

The western world has a crappy hand at the moment. Military intervention is a non-starter as are economic sanctions so there is nothing the West can actively pursue. It has to sit by an watch, impotent, but Putin is a great statesman, and like a great statesman he will offer some crumbs from the table which will be gleefully accepted by the West as a from of facing saving that they can 'sell' back home as they have done a good job and prevented a widening of the conflict. Georgia in 2008 provides the template, whereby only South Ossetia and one other province were seized. Russia will annex Crimea and leave the rest of Ukraine alone, probably with new elections and new a president. Not annexing Eastern Ukraine will be seen as a coup for Western diplomats and Crimea will be painted as Russian anyway, after all it only became Ukrainian in 1954 when Khrushchev was drunk.

Don't expect a more stable Ukraine though as by leaving the Eastern (Russian) part of Ukraine within Ukraine Putin will still be able to exert a lot of influence over Ukraine's future actions, which is what he ideally wants Russia the Great Power, Russia the warm water port, Russia the Eastern Bloc and Putin the Great Statesman.


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